Inside of Me There Are Two Wolves: A Playoffs Story
This past weekend, the NBA and NHL playoffs began. In October, MLB will start their playoffs and in January it will be the NFL’s turn. The multiple times a year this happens, I am put into an extreme moral dilemma. Do I get excited about the prospect of underdogs pulling off massive upsets and giving us moments to relive for years to come, or do I get annoyed at how inefficient playoff systems are at giving us the true best teams as champions in their respective leagues?
The argument for a playoff system is that head to head is the best way to directly compare teams, which can be true, but only over larger sample sizes. Five or seven games against each other are not enough to determine which team is definitively better from a true talent perspective. The NBA is the best of the multi game playoff series leagues at having the better true talent team win a given 7 game series, at around 80%. This is not great, but much more efficient than the other major leagues. For MLB to have the better team win 80% of their series, the series would have to last a staggering 75 games. That is nearly half the games in the regular season and totally unfeasible for a playoff series length.
One reason I love European domestic soccer leagues so much, and in particular the English Premier League, is how winners are crowned. The team with the very best record at the end of the regular season wins the league. The regular season is all that matters and there are no playoffs after its conclusion. No ifs, ands or buts. No small sample size caveats. Just pure and unadulterated greatness from the champs. My nerd brain loves this, as the mathematical best team wins the league nearly every time. Under this format, the Boston Celtics would have been NBA champs going away this season, but due to the looming playoffs now have only roughly 43% odds to win it all. That is a very good chance compared to their peers, but less than the 100% it would have been using the EPL style competition. Unfortunately, this EPL format also works against my fan brain, as my beloved Crystal Palace has likely no chance at winning a title in the current format by taking down the “Big 6” clubs over a 38 game season, peaking at a mere 10th place finish so far in their history. In a playoff system, 10th place is easily good enough for a spot in the playoffs and a nonzero chance to win the league in a given season. Just a few years ago, the Atlanta Braves won the World Series after having only the 12th best regular season record in MLB. There is obviously no guarantee Crystal Palace would win a title if the EPL adopted a playoff system, but there would be a considerably higher chance for them than in the current setup.
The main drawback with this regular season European style format is the potential lack of drama. You just do not get the playoff-style every play counts type of action unless there is a title race that goes down to the last day of the season. These are not unheard of, but do not happen regularly. Usually, the winning team will mathematically eliminate everyone else with a few weeks left in the season. On the other hand, playoffs continue the suspense all the way down to the very final play of the season. No team is mathematically eliminated until the final buzzer (or strike). Upsets are constant and underdogs are beloved by many for their bucking of the status quo. However, what is the point of crowning a champion if not finding the empirically best team? But then again, who am I to say that sports, which are at their core entertainment, should be less entertaining?
Ultimately, I am still torn. I came into writing this piece hoping that as my words flowed onto the page that I would finally feel strongly in favor of one system over the other, but I do not. It really comes down to whether you watch sports to see the best team win, or to be as entertained as possible with potential unknowns. Both are valid ways to watch sports, much like playoffs are as valid a way to find a champion as a simple regular season ranking. And even if the EPL never holds playoffs, I still believe that the boys from Croydon can win a title one year as long as we keep Olise and Richards at Selhurst Park for years to come. Have a great day and go Palace!