The NBA’s 2025 Rookie of the Year Will Not Be a Lottery Pick
Jared McCain is already famous for his playful dancing and singing videos on social media, but he is about to be much more famous for his basketball playing abilities. The 6’3 combo guard out of Sacramento, CA is currently playing his college ball at Duke after being a consensus 5-star recruit while in high school. He has played very well so far, averaging 13 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists per game on high efficiency while not turning the ball over. Despite this hype and high level of performance, McCain is projected to be just a 2nd round draft pick as of the time of writing. I think this is quite unfair and maybe even disrespectful. The team that drafts him will end up thanking their lucky stars for such a steal of a pick in a down draft year.
Although not an elite athlete in terms of speed and bounce, McCain makes up for it with a very high basketball IQ and smooth movements both on and off the ball. His shot making is already at an NBA level, showing through in the form of a 59% true shooting percentage so far this season in college. When watching him hoop for Duke this year, the NBA player he reminds me most of is Malcom Brogdon, given the similarities in their respective games. Both are taller combo guards that make up for non-elite athleticism with IQ and shooting. They both can guard the 1 through the 3 and are capable of being an adequate playmaker when handling the ball while playing point guard or coming around screens and draining open looks while playing as a shooting guard. This archetype is very valuable in the modern NBA where 3-point shooting, reliable playmaking and switchability on defense are so highly coveted, as evidenced by Brogdon’s current $22.5mm per year contract with the Portland Trailblazers. In a 2016 redraft, Brodgon would undoubtedly be a top 10 selection.
The top end talent of the 2024 NBA Draft is lacking the star power and consensus top picks that usually appear by this time in the cycle, which is why it is all the more surprising to me that McCain is not getting as much draft hype. Given the lack of top end talent and high number of project players in this draft, I think it is very possible that McCain follows in Brogdon’s footsteps and uses their shared playing style to win the 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year despite being drafted in the 2nd round should he fall that far. He is an NBA ready role player right now, with much more to come as he gains more experience in the league. A per game average of something like 12 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists on 56% true shooting with solid defense should be enough for McCain to bring home the hardware, barring an extreme breakout from a different rookie.
Ultimately, I am a huge fan of McCain, his game, and his brand. His positivity and magnetic personality shine through the screen. He is such a good example of a modern college athlete for younger athletes to look up to and I am sure his NIL deals have been quite lucrative. I will be rooting for him all the way, and you can too by following him on Tik Tok and Instagram.
All stats pulled from sports-reference.com